Date: Wed, 19 May 1999 17:26:08
-0400
From: Jim_Jatras@rpc.senate.gov
(Jim Jatras)
Subject: Remarks at CATO (5/18)
The following is the text of my
remarks at CATO Institute on 5/18/99
at the conference: "NATO's Balkan
War: Finding an Honorable Exit."
* * *
Let me state at the outset that
my remarks here today do not represent
any Senate office or member. Rather,
I am giving my professional
judgement as a policy analyst and
my personal opinion, for both of
which I am solely responsible.
The rationale for U.S. intervention
in Kosovo and for assistance to the
Kosovo Liberation Army is easily
stated. It goes something like this:
The current crisis in Kosovo is
simply the latest episode in the
aggressive drive by extreme Serbian
nationalism, orchestrated by
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic,
to create an ethnically pure
Greater Serbian state. This aggression
-- first in Slovenia, then in
Croatia, and then in Bosnia, --
has now come to Kosovo, largely
because the West -- notably NATO
-- refused to stand up to him.
Prior to 1989, Kosovo was at peace
under an autonomy that allowed
the Albanian people a large degree
of self-rule. That status quo was
disturbed by the Serbs by the revocation
of Kosovo's autonomy and the
initiation of an apartheid system
of ethnic discrimination. Now, after a
decade of oppression by the Serbs,
the Albanians of Kosovo are faced
with a pre-planned program of genocide,
similar to that committed by
the Serbs in Bosnia. The rise of
the KLA is a response to this threat.
The United States and the international
community first exhausted the
possibilities for a diplomatic
settlement to the crisis, repeatedly
offering the Serbs the opportunity
to accept the Rambouillet agreement, a
peaceful solution that would be
fair to all parties. But while the
Albanians, including the KLA, chose
the path of negotiation and peace,
the Serbs rejected it. Accordingly,
NATO had no choice but to move
ahead with a military response,
namely air strikes, which in Bosnia
forced the Serbs to the peace table.
The campaign is directed against
Milosevic and his security apparatus,
not against the Serbian people.
Unfortunately, as the Serbs moved
ahead with their pre-planned
program of genocide, the NATO air
campaign could not stop the
displacement of hundreds of thousands
of Albanians. While air power
may ultimately bring the Serbs
to heel, a just and speedy solution
requires a ground component. Some
advocate a NATO ground
offensive, but there are concerns
about the potential costs. Others
advocate a program of arming and
training the KLA -- the victims of
Serbian aggression and genocide
-- to liberate their own country. In any
case, to fail to achieve NATO's
objectives is completely unacceptable.
International stability would be
threatened, and American and NATO
credibility would be destroyed
if genocide were allowed to succeed in
the heart of Europe at the dawn
of the 21st Century.
That, in a nutshell, is the case.
I have tried to paraphrase as closely as
possible the arguments of supporters
of the Clinton policy. The trouble
is: hardly any part of the summary
justification I just gave is true. Some
parts of it are skewed or exaggerated
interpretations of the facts, some
are outright lies. However, as
in Bosnia, the Clinton Administration's
Kosovo policy cannot be justified
without recasting a frightfully
complex conflict, with plenty of
blame to go around, as a caricature: a
morality play in black and white
where one side is completely innocent
and the other entirely villainous.
To start with, pre-1989 Kosovo was
hardly the fantasyland of ethnic
tolerance the pro-intervention
caricature makes it out to be. Under the
1974 Tito constitution, which elevated
Kosovo to effective equality with
the federal republics, Kosovo's
Albanians exercised virtually complete
control over the provincial administration.
Tens, perhaps hundreds, of
thousands of Serbs left during
this period in the face of pervasive
discrimination and the authorities'
refusal to protect Serbs from ethnic
violence. The result of the shift
in the ethnic balance that accelerated
during this period is the main
claim ethnic Albanians lay to exclusive
ownership of Kosovo.
At the same time, Albanian demands
mounted that the province be
detached from Serbia and given
republic status within the Yugoslav
federation; republic status, if
granted, would, in theory, have allowed
Kosovo the legal right to declare
its independence from Yugoslavia.
One of the ironies of the present
Kosovo crisis is that Milosevic began
his rise to power in Serbia in
large part because of the oppressive
character of pre-1989 Albanian
rule in Kosovo, symbolized by the
famous 1987 rally where he promised
the local Serbs: "Nobody will
beat you again." In short, rather
than Milosevic being the cause of the
Kosovo crisis, it would be as correct
to say that intolerant Albanian
nationalism in Kosovo is largely
the cause of Milosevic's attainment of
power.
Second, in 1989 Kosovo's autonomy
was not revoked but was
downgraded -- at the federal level
at Milosevic's initiative -- to what it
had been before 1974. Many Albanians
refused to accept Belgrade's
reassertion of authority and large
numbers were fired from their state
jobs. The resulting standoff --
of boycott and the creation of alternative
institutions on the Albanian side
and of increasingly severe police
repression on the Serbian side
-- continued for most of the 1990s.
Again, the political problem in
Kosovo -- up until the bombing began --
has always been: how much autonomy
will the Kosovo Albanians settle
for? When I hear now that autonomy
is not enough and that only
independence will suffice, I can't
help but think of Turkish Kurdistan
where not only have the Kurds never
been offered any kind of
autonomy but even suggesting there
ought to be autonomy will land you
in jail. But of course we don't
bomb Turkey over the Kurds; on the
contrary, as a NATO member Turkey
is one of the countries helping to
bomb the Serbs.
Third, while after 1989 there was
a tense stand-off in Kosovo, what we
did not have was open warfare.
That was the result not of any
pre-planned Serbian program of
"ethnic cleansing" but of the KLA's
deliberate -- and I would say classic
-- strategy to turn a political
confrontation into a military confrontation.
Attacks directed against not
only Serbian police and officials
but Serbian civilians and insufficiently
militant Albanians were undoubtedly,
and accurately, calculated to
trigger a massive and largely indiscriminate
response by Serbian forces.
The growing cycle of violence,
in turn, further radicalized Kosovo's
Albanians and led to the possibility
of NATO military involvement,
which, I submit, based on the Bosnia
precedent, was the KLA's real goal
rather than any realistic expectation
of victory on the battlefield. In
every respect, it has been a stunningly
successful strategy.
Fourth, the Clinton Administration's
claim that NATO resorted to force
only after diplomacy failed is
a flat lie. As I pointed out in a paper
issued by the Policy Committee
in August of last year, the military
planning for intervention was largely
in place at that time, and all that
was lacking was a suitable pretext.
The Holbrooke-Milosevic agreement
of October 1998 -- to which the
KLA was not a party -- mandated a
partial Serb withdrawal, during
which the KLA occupied roughly half of
Kosovo and cleansed dozens of villages
of their Serb inhabitants. Any
reaction on the Serb side, however,
risked NATO bombing.
Finally, the Rambouillet process
cannot be considered a negotiation
under any normal definition of
the word: A bunch of lawyers at the State
Department write up a 90-page document
and then push it in front of the
parties and say: "Sign it. And
if you (one of the parties) sign it and he
(the other party) doesn't -- then
we'll bomb him." And of course, when
they said that, Secretary Albright
and the State Department knew that
one of the parties would not --
and could not -- sign the agreement.
Why? Because -- as has received
far too little attention from our
supposedly inquisitive media --
it provided for NATO occupation of not
just Kosovo but of all of Yugoslavia
(Serbia and Montenegro) under
Paragraph 8 of Appendix B:
"8. NATO personnel shall enjoy,
together with their vehicles, vessels,
aircraft, and equipment, free and
unrestricted passage and unimpeded
access throughout the FRY [i.e.,
the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia],
including associated airspace and
territorial waters. This shall include,
but not be limited to, the right
of bivouac, maneuver, billet, and
utilization of any areas or facilities
as required for support, training,
and
operations."
I have it on good authority that
one senior Administration official told
media at Rambouillet (under embargo)
"We intentionally set the bar too
high for the Serbs to comply. They
need some bombing, and that's what
they are going to get." In short,
Rambouillet was just Albright's charade
to get to where we are now: a bombing
campaign. Their big mistake
was, they thought their splendid
little war would have been over long
before now. It's all happened just
as they planned, except the last part:
Milosevic has refused to run up
the white flag.
Fifth, nobody can doubt there are
serious atrocities being committed in
Kosovo by Milosevic's forces --
though the extent and specifics of the
reports that the media (as in Bosnia)
treats as established fact are open
to question and have been characterized
by Agence France Presse (4/31)
as on occasion being "confused,
contradictory, and sometimes plain
wrong."
For the Administration and NATO,
however, it does not appear to
detract from their propaganda value
that "reports coming from NATO
and US officials appear often as
little more than regurgitation of
unconfirmed information from the"
KLA. I have in mind, for example,
the report for a time being peddled
by Jamie Rubin, among others, that
some 100,000 Albanian men had been
herded into the Pristina sports
stadium -- until a reporter actually
went to the stadium and found it
empty.
At the same time, we should not
doubt that a lot more civilians -- both
Serb and Albanian -- are being
killed by NATO than we are willing to
admit as the air strikes are increasingly
directed against what are
euphemistically called "infrastructure"
-- i.e., civilian -- targets. Some
Albanian refugees say they are
fleeing the Serbs, others NATO's bombs.
The Clinton Administration has vainly
tried to claim that all the
bloodshed since March 24 has been
Milosevic's fault, insisting that the
offensive would have taken place
even if NATO had not bombed, but I
find that argument unconvincing.
After the failure of the Rambouillet
talks and the breakdown of the
October 1998 Milosevic-Holbrooke
agreement, a Serb action against the
KLA may have been unavoidable --
and no doubt it would have been
conducted with the same light touch
used by the Turks against the PKK
or by the Sri Lankans against the
Tamil Tigers, who, like the KLA, do
not play by Marquis of Queensberry
rules. But a full-scale drive to push
out all or most ethnic Albanians
and unleash a demographic bomb
against NATO staging areas in Albania
and Macedonia may not have
been.
Sixth, because of how the Administration's
decision to bomb has turned
Kosovo from a crisis into a disaster,
we no longer have a Kosovo policy
-- we have a KLA policy. As documented
in a paper released by the
Policy Committee on March 31, the
Clinton Administration has
elevated to virtually unchallenged
status as the legitimate representative
of the Kosovo Albanian people a
terrorist group about which there are
very serious questions as to its
criminal activities -- particularly with
regard to the drug trade -- and
as to radical Islamic influences, including
Osama bin Ladin and the Iranians.
Advocates of U.S. assistance to
the KLA, such as the Heritage
Foundation, point out that based
on the experience of aiding the
mujahedin in Afghanistan, we can
use our help as a leverage for
"reforming" the KLA's behavior.
However, I would ask which radical
group of any description -- either
in Afghanistan (where we could at
least claim the vicissitudes of
the Cold War justified the risks), or the
Izetbegovic regime in Bosnia, or,
on the same principle, the Castro
regime in Cuba or the Sandinistas
in Nicaragua, or the PLO -- has ever
genuinely abandoned its radical
birthright for a mess of American
pottage.
Seventh, advocates of aid to the
KLA suggest that it be contingent on
guarantees that that organization
not attack civilians and not pursue a
greater Albania beyond Kosovo.
Given the pre-1989 history of Kosovo
and the KLA's behavior to date,
the first suggestion is laughable. As for
the second, I submit for your consideration
a map from the webpage of
the Albanian American Civic League
(www.aacl.com), a pro-KLA
group in the United States. It
visually represents the areas claimed by
the KLA, including not only Kosovo
but other areas of southern Serbia,
parts of Montenegro and Macedonia
(including their capitals), and parts
of Greece.
When I first saw this map -- which
the webmaster has made
considerably harder to print since
I first referenced it in my paper -- it
struck a recollection of something
I had seen before. It occurred to me
that it is quite similar to one
I have (printed by the State Department in
1947) of interim territorial arrangements
during World War II. I can
understand that there is an element
of hyperbole in critics' calling
NATO's air campaign "Nazi," but
I fail to see what interest the United
States has in helping to restore
the Nazi-imposed borders of 1943 or
how this helps preserve European
stability.
Eighth, the Clinton claim that we
are hitting Milosevic and not the
Serbian people is just cruel mockery.
Politically, this bombing has
solidified his position as he never
could have done on his own. The
Clinton Administration repeatedly
rebuffed initiatives by the Serbian
opposition for support against
Milosevic, most recently by a direct
meeting with Madeleine Albright
by the Serbian Orthodox bishop of
Kosovo, His Grace ARTEMIJE, in
which he appealed for an initiative
that would have strengthened moderate
forces on both sides, begun
genuine negotiations (in place
of the Rambouillet farce), and weakened
Milosevic. (I have copies of this
proposal here today.) Predictably, that
appeal fell on deaf ears. But this
Administration cannot say it was not
warned.
Ninth, the Administration's "humanitarian"
justification for this war --
the contention that this is about
returning Albanian refugees to their
homes -- is rank hypocrisy. Many
commentators have noted that the
Administration had turned a blind
eye to the cleansing of hundreds of
thousands of Serbs from the Krajina
in 1995. This is not quite accurate.
They did not turn a blind eye,
they actively abetted the Croatian Army's
"Operation Storm" with mercenary
retired U.S. military consultants to
provide training and operational
planning under the guise of
"democracy training." Indeed, there
is evidence that U.S. assistance to
the eradication of the Krajina
Serbs may have included air strikes and
psy-ops, but to my knowledge no
member of our intrepid Fourth Estate
has yet seen fit to look into it.
Tenth, the notion that Milosevic
is nationalist bent on creating a
"Greater Serbia" is nonsense. Milosevic
-- unlike the equally thuggish
Franjo Tudjman and Alija Izetbegovic
-- is an opportunist, who likely
would have been more than willing
to sell out Kosovo as he did the
Serbs of Krajina and parts of Bosnia,
if the Clinton/Albright policy had
not been so completely incompetent
as to paint him into corner where
he had to stand and fight. As for
Greater Serbia -- as opposed to Greater
Croatia or Greater Albania -- it's
all in the definitions.
The only consistent rule in the
break-up of Titoist Yugoslavia is that the
Serbs -- the only constituent nationality
that gave up their own national
state to create Yugoslavia -- have
alone been regarded as having no
legitimate interest in how it broke
up. One the one hand, Serb minorities
in other republics were expected
to accept as authoritative Tito's borders
or be regarded as "aggressors"
for wishing to remain in the state in
which they had up until them been
living. On the other hand, Kosovo, a
region that was part of Serbia
even before Yugoslavia was created, is up
for grabs. The double standard
is breathtaking.
So what are we left with? The Clinton
Administration's blunder has
done nothing but harm American
interests and those of everybody else
concerned. It has harmed the Albanian
refugees, making an already bad
situation much worse; harmed an
unknown number of innocent
civilians, both Serbian and Albanian,
killed or injured by our bombing;
harmed any prospects of political
reform in Serbia that would remove
Milosevic from power; harmed the
U.S. security posture, as our forces
around the world have been stripped
down to devote resources to
Kosovo; harmed the already fragile
stability of neighboring states and
the region as a whole; and harmed
our relationship with Russia, which
should be among our first priorities
-- having vindicated every lie the
Soviet Union ever told about NATO's
aggressive intentions. And the
harm grows worse every day.
The question before us is finding
an honorable exit. Some suggest
turning the current disaster into
complete catastrophe by sending in
NATO ground troops under premises
as faulty as those that led to the
air war. Arming and training the
KLA would be similarly ill-advised.
That leaves pointlessly extending
the air war -- or looking for a way out,
a diplomatic solution. I will let
Rep. Weldon describe his proposal as
outlined in House Concurrent Resolution
99 -- which seems to me the
best idea on the table. I would
add only one thing: we need to stop the
bombing as soon as possible. If
what you are doing is making things
worse -- stop what you're doing.
If you have mistakenly put gasoline on
a fire instead of water -- don't
pour on more.
Some will suggest that quitting
while we're behind would harm
American and NATO's credibility
and would be a victory for Milosevic.
But to a large extent, that damage
has already been done. As for NATO,
what has been harmed so far is
less NATO's commitment to its
collective defense mission under
Article 5 of the North Atlantic
Treaty -- which has never been
at stake in Kosovo -- than what President
Clinton has called the "new NATO"
and Prime Minister Blair a "new
internationalism," which is nowhere
provided for in the Treaty. What
would, and should, collapse is
the misguided effort to transform NATO
from a defensive alliance into
a regional peacekeeping organization, a
mini-U.N. with "out-of-area" responsibilities,
a certain road to more
Bosnias and more Kosovos down the
line. That mission would lose its
credibility, fatally so, and so
it should. The Clinton Administration's
incompetent policy in Kosovo has
had one small benefit: it has exposed
fact that last year, when the Senate
gave its advice and consent to
expansion of NATO's membership,
it also approved expansion of
NATO's mission. If the Clinton
Administration and NATO are
successful in Kosovo, not only
will the principle of state sovereignty in
the face of an out-of-control international
bureaucracy be fatally
compromised -- we can expect (and
indeed some observers already have
started to set out the case for)
new and even more dangerous adventures
of this sort elsewhere, notably
in the Caucasus.
Finally, I have no confidence that
the Clinton Administration is ready to
take the rational way out offered
by Rep. Weldon and his colleagues.
Indeed, rational people would not
have committed the blunders to date
nor would they have continued to
compound them. All signs indicate
that President Clinton, Secretary
Albright, and their "Third Wave"
European cronies of the Tony Blair
stripe are treating this not as a
policy problem but as a political
problem. Their attitude, as it was
during the impeachment crisis,
is "we'll just have to win then, won't
we" -- "winning" meaning not a
successful policy or even "winning" the
war, but winning the propaganda
war: an exercise in media spin, polls,
and focus groups. As Madeleine
Albright suggested last year, the leader
of some countries -- she mentioned
Serbia among them -- ". . . try to
grab the truth and leash it like
a dog, ration it like bread, or mold it
like clay. Their goal is to create
their own myths, conceal their own
blunders, direct resentments elsewhere
and instill in their people a dread
of change."
However true that description is
of Slobodan Milosevic, Madame
Secretary should look in the mirror.
No, this war is not about American
interests but about vindicating
the intelligence of Madeleine Albright
and the good word of Bill Clinton.
The door to an honorable exit is
clearly marked. The question is how to
induce this Administration to take
it.
* * * |